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Entry #440: pick published

Hash verified

Sligo Rovers v Dundalk: Home win 26% @ 4.08 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:01.775549+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 996116ae584f10ca46c11947e3ed84ca943c36adfbd9fe73738b5b2c710de2fd
Stored hash: dbf2ae98fa3ac6346a4daabc597630a04323462d11daec1f28f99839ced628c7
Recomputed: dbf2ae98fa3ac6346a4daabc597630a04323462d11daec1f28f99839ced628c7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Dundalk",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0423,
  "explanation": "Home win: 26% against a market price of 22% (+4.2%).\nExpected goals Sligo Rovers 1.48 – 1.48 Dundalk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nSligo Rovers's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nDundalk's defence (1.14× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nSligo Rovers's defence (1.16× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1492785,
  "home": "Sligo Rovers",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier Division",
  "league_api_id": 357,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2211,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-357-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "4.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2634,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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