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Entry #441: pick published

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Lille v Stade Brestois 29: Home win 53% @ 1.87 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:04.182505+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: dbf2ae98fa3ac6346a4daabc597630a04323462d11daec1f28f99839ced628c7
Stored hash: fa98e3335ac06e2377a80af845a7a0745e2d3981b6f4638e6a637f47033e78de
Recomputed: fa98e3335ac06e2377a80af845a7a0745e2d3981b6f4638e6a637f47033e78de

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Stade Brestois 29",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0125,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 52% (+1.2%).\nExpected goals Lille 1.95 – 1.17 Stade Brestois 29.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Lille 4, Stade Brestois 29 7) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nLille's defence (0.85× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nStade Brestois 29's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1552786,
  "home": "Lille",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 1",
  "league_api_id": 61,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5154,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-61-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.87",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5279,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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