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Entry #442: pick published

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Boston River v Defensor Sporting: Home win 37% @ 2.60 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:05.803799+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fa98e3335ac06e2377a80af845a7a0745e2d3981b6f4638e6a637f47033e78de
Stored hash: f3b8f63de88c5d8fc29a9b86e34a3cb7fac4f9ba22bc33abca44485214b03cb4
Recomputed: f3b8f63de88c5d8fc29a9b86e34a3cb7fac4f9ba22bc33abca44485214b03cb4

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Defensor Sporting",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0187,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 35% (+1.9%).\nExpected goals Boston River 1.25 – 1.07 Defensor Sporting.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nBoston River's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nDefensor Sporting's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nBoston River's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1644701,
  "home": "Boston River",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3512,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.60",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3698,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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