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Entry #443: pick published

Hash verified

Valencia v Athletic Club: Home win 32% @ 3.31 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:08.562449+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f3b8f63de88c5d8fc29a9b86e34a3cb7fac4f9ba22bc33abca44485214b03cb4
Stored hash: afc89d6152bc78b704e533f293a144962b8d1e7cdfba0eb3a4ad9f90863e83fa
Recomputed: afc89d6152bc78b704e533f293a144962b8d1e7cdfba0eb3a4ad9f90863e83fa

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Athletic Club",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0337,
  "explanation": "Home win: 32% against a market price of 29% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Valencia 1.29 – 1.15 Athletic Club.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nValencia's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nAthletic Club's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nAthletic Club's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1570421,
  "home": "Valencia",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2879,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.31",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3217,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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