Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #444: pick published

Hash verified

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II: Home win 57% @ 1.61 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:10.732384+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: afc89d6152bc78b704e533f293a144962b8d1e7cdfba0eb3a4ad9f90863e83fa
Stored hash: d86f365e06764a0e7c677e6face40d344c51d1cb1fb273a7f6d9f6efcf6011b0
Recomputed: d86f365e06764a0e7c677e6face40d344c51d1cb1fb273a7f6d9f6efcf6011b0

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Willem II",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0212,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 60% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 – 0.96 Willem II.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nWillem II's attack (0.79× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nWillem II's defence (1.14× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nSparta Rotterdam's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).",
  "fixture": 1552193,
  "home": "Sparta Rotterdam",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5959,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.61",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5747,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#443 #445

Latest entries

1209 in total