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Entry #445: pick published

Hash verified

Real Oruro v Aurora: Away win 41% @ 2.20 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:11.900393+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d86f365e06764a0e7c677e6face40d344c51d1cb1fb273a7f6d9f6efcf6011b0
Stored hash: 673ffbf6d513a352ba188e4462e34b4049f89894218b8d84f5741bbf96c00b07
Recomputed: 673ffbf6d513a352ba188e4462e34b4049f89894218b8d84f5741bbf96c00b07

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Aurora",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": -0.009,
  "explanation": "Away win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Real Oruro 2.51 – 2.23 Aurora.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±9.9%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+59% goals at home) takes 2.3 pts from away win.\nReal Oruro's defence (1.37× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nRest days (Real Oruro 7, Aurora 6) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nReal Oruro's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1619330,
  "home": "Real Oruro",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4184,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.20",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4094,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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