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Entry #446: pick published

Hash verified

Las Palmas v Castellón: Home win 31% @ 3.43 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:13.719997+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 673ffbf6d513a352ba188e4462e34b4049f89894218b8d84f5741bbf96c00b07
Stored hash: 2b52a939b99eea2c885c9b5a800839131233b7b0dd7db5b624c0076884cd119e
Recomputed: 2b52a939b99eea2c885c9b5a800839131233b7b0dd7db5b624c0076884cd119e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Castellón",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0426,
  "explanation": "Home win: 31% against a market price of 27% (+4.3%).\nExpected goals Las Palmas 1.49 – 1.18 Castellón.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (Las Palmas 6, Castellón 6) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nCastellón's attack (1.15× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nCastellón's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1569977,
  "home": "Las Palmas",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2689,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.43",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3115,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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