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Entry #447: pick published

Hash verified

Macara v Independiente del Valle: Home win 31% @ 3.29 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:15.206900+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2b52a939b99eea2c885c9b5a800839131233b7b0dd7db5b624c0076884cd119e
Stored hash: 94c4a87ae1554243b838660f15c278278b732720cd5171bb665fef97cf3d72a3
Recomputed: 94c4a87ae1554243b838660f15c278278b732720cd5171bb665fef97cf3d72a3

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Independiente del Valle",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0376,
  "explanation": "Home win: 31% against a market price of 27% (+3.8%).\nExpected goals Macara 1.66 – 1.64 Independiente del Valle.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nIndependiente del Valle's attack (1.58× the league rate) takes 4.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nMacara's attack (1.14× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nIndependiente del Valle's defence (0.93× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1639796,
  "home": "Macara",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Pro",
  "league_api_id": 242,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2707,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-242-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3083,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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