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Entry #448: pick published

Hash verified

Dundee v Rangers: Home win 16% @ 7.32 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:16.930498+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 94c4a87ae1554243b838660f15c278278b732720cd5171bb665fef97cf3d72a3
Stored hash: e54efe514aaaad7c1a27a31a5f62323cf030d477824953e719ac679de8c2f162
Recomputed: e54efe514aaaad7c1a27a31a5f62323cf030d477824953e719ac679de8c2f162

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Rangers",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0414,
  "explanation": "Home win: 16% against a market price of 12% (+4.1%).\nExpected goals Dundee 1.22 – 1.63 Rangers.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 29% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRangers's attack (1.29× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRangers's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nDundee's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1556678,
  "home": "Dundee",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premiership",
  "league_api_id": 179,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1173,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-179-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "7.32",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1587,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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