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Entry #449: pick published

Hash verified

Ceara v Juventude: Home win 35% @ 2.70 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:05:18.679597+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e54efe514aaaad7c1a27a31a5f62323cf030d477824953e719ac679de8c2f162
Stored hash: 209574a39560cf2e547e765b227a327378e6bae44af29bc0a027c181fedf6da7
Recomputed: 209574a39560cf2e547e765b227a327378e6bae44af29bc0a027c181fedf6da7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Juventude",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0059,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 34% (+0.6%).\nExpected goals Ceara 1.11 – 1.07 Juventude.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±5.5%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+36% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nJuventude's defence (0.79× the league rate against) takes 3.0 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.6%).",
  "fixture": 1520931,
  "home": "Ceara",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3438,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.70",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3497,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#448 #450

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