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{
  "away": "Nacional Asuncion",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0049,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 36% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Club Guarani 1.04 – 0.99 Nacional Asuncion.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNacional Asuncion's defence (0.75× the league rate against) takes 3.2 pts from home win.\nClub Guarani's defence (0.83× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+11% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nClub Guarani's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1632033,
  "home": "Club Guarani",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T20:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Division Profesional - Clausura",
  "league_api_id": 252,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3581,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-252-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.57",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3532,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}