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{
  "away": "Atletico Nacional",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0341,
  "explanation": "Away win: 57% against a market price of 60% (-3.4%).\nExpected goals Chico 0.83 – 1.38 Atletico Nacional.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAtletico Nacional's attack (1.34× the league rate) adds 3.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nChico's defence (1.15× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nChico's attack (0.81× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.4%).",
  "fixture": 1549685,
  "home": "Chico",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T20:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera A",
  "league_api_id": 239,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6009,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-239-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.58",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5667,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}