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{
  "away": "Pacific FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0242,
  "explanation": "Home win: 81% against a market price of 83% (-2.4%).\nExpected goals Cavalry FC 2.41 – 0.88 Pacific FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 70% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nPacific FC's defence (1.27× the league rate against) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nCavalry FC's defence (0.74× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nCavalry FC's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.4%).",
  "fixture": 1517369,
  "home": "Cavalry FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T20:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Canadian Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 479,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8295,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-479-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.14",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.8053,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}