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{
  "away": "Sport Boys",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0005,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (-0.0%).\nExpected goals Juan Pablo II College 1.42 – 1.17 Sport Boys.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+52% goals at home) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nJuan Pablo II College's defence (1.12× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nSport Boys's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nSport Boys's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1549514,
  "home": "Juan Pablo II College",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T20:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4335,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.16",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.433,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}