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Entry #62: pick published

Hash verified

SKN ST. Polten v Rapid Wien II: Home win 61% @ 1.49 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:24.842757+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 71ddae652cbbea70792419e0acf9ae9959d10183efaa441fb27c09dc5f24bedb
Stored hash: 1b12db74f2e5f50e753b8a37f9246c395895640f1dfa3909772eb2979c240aef
Recomputed: 1b12db74f2e5f50e753b8a37f9246c395895640f1dfa3909772eb2979c240aef

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Rapid Wien II",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0187,
  "explanation": "Home win: 61% against a market price of 63% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals SKN ST. Polten 1.81 – 1.02 Rapid Wien II.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nRapid Wien II's defence (1.17× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nSKN ST. Polten's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1567929,
  "home": "SKN ST. Polten",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6332,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.49",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6145,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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