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{
  "away": "Al-Arabi SC",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.0353,
  "explanation": "Home win 28% against a market price of 24% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Al Shahaniya 1.33 – 1.55 Al-Arabi SC, from 5 and 5 matches in this competition over the last 12 months (recent ones count more). Our model carries 40% of the weight; the market price carries the rest.\nAl-Arabi SC's defence (goals-against rating 0.76) takes 4.0 pts from the home win.\nHome advantage in this league (1.07× goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to the home win.\nAl Shahaniya's attack (rating 0.94, league average 1.00) takes 0.8 pts from the home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1597942,
  "home": "Al Shahaniya",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Stars League",
  "league_api_id": 305,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2401,
  "model": "market-prior(shin)+poisson v0.2",
  "odds_taken": "3.71",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2753,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}