Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #64: pick published

Hash verified

Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II: Home win 44% @ 2.10 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:27.304592+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0486cf4a39cd8699519ba67df4e5bed513694353656fd787fd29a797c9b42830
Stored hash: b650601308290d812da32064ccea6edc7ee6a0e9202dc0fbda51c57230a5fb83
Recomputed: b650601308290d812da32064ccea6edc7ee6a0e9202dc0fbda51c57230a5fb83

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Stuttgart II",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0015,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 44% (+0.2%).\nExpected goals Fortuna Köln 1.58 – 1.23 Stuttgart II.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+15% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nStuttgart II's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nFortuna Köln's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nFortuna Köln's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1584037,
  "home": "Fortuna Köln",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4367,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.10",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4383,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#63 #65

Latest entries

657 in total