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Entry #65: pick published

Hash verified

Çorum FK v Rizespor: Home win 49% @ 1.99 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:28.928401+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b650601308290d812da32064ccea6edc7ee6a0e9202dc0fbda51c57230a5fb83
Stored hash: f51057d5db86356d3600a03b83b100edf5d41d28424782442d02d29fdac86412
Recomputed: f51057d5db86356d3600a03b83b100edf5d41d28424782442d02d29fdac86412

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Rizespor",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0134,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 47% (+1.3%).\nExpected goals Çorum FK 2.25 – 1.13 Rizespor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±13.6%), so it carries 9% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nÇorum FK's attack (1.38× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nRizespor's attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1584432,
  "home": "Çorum FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Süper Lig",
  "league_api_id": 203,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4749,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-203-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.99",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4883,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#64 #66

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