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Entry #61: pick published

Hash verified

Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg: Away win 45% @ 2.01 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:24.030543+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f9740e51cc2d9423c8eb0d0f9362ab52a985bd0318967b825c32852acd1fd097
Stored hash: 71ddae652cbbea70792419e0acf9ae9959d10183efaa441fb27c09dc5f24bedb
Recomputed: 71ddae652cbbea70792419e0acf9ae9959d10183efaa441fb27c09dc5f24bedb

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "1. FC Nürnberg",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0227,
  "explanation": "Away win: 45% against a market price of 47% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Energie Cottbus 1.77 – 1.67 1. FC Nürnberg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nRest days (Energie Cottbus 6, 1. FC Nürnberg 6) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\n1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nEnergie Cottbus's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).",
  "fixture": 1576198,
  "home": "Energie Cottbus",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4689,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.01",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4462,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#60 #62

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