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Entry #736: pick published

Hash verified

Universitatea Craiova v Farul Constanta: Home win 65% @ 1.42 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:02:49.900490+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0a3b7395c9f504f442266a5accf0dc2674ba342f78f730da4a2858c49c2fe666
Stored hash: 95de10510b0996250ed94537e79fe3e7f777568d2973a0a4c4ff25a9dad528ba
Recomputed: 95de10510b0996250ed94537e79fe3e7f777568d2973a0a4c4ff25a9dad528ba

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Farul Constanta",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0221,
  "explanation": "Home win: 65% against a market price of 67% (-2.2%).\nExpected goals Universitatea Craiova 1.80 – 0.87 Farul Constanta.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 4.1 pts to home win.\nUniversitatea Craiova's attack (1.25× the league rate) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nUniversitatea Craiova's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Universitatea Craiova 3, Farul Constanta 7) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.2%).",
  "fixture": 1565277,
  "home": "Universitatea Craiova",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6679,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.42",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6458,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee",
  "type": "pick"
}

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