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Entry #737: pick published
Hash verifiedUta Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj: Home win 43% @ 2.12 (Avoid)
- Written
- 2026-10-18T01:02:51.454280+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
- Previous hash
- 95de10510b0996250ed94537e79fe3e7f777568d2973a0a4c4ff25a9dad528ba
- Stored hash
- a7361468a8317cab6ac0afb2aee4e84c864b07dba01589b368dfbf96fca64366
- Recomputed
- a7361468a8317cab6ac0afb2aee4e84c864b07dba01589b368dfbf96fca64366
Content, exactly as hashed
{
"away": "CFR 1907 Cluj",
"bookmakers": 6,
"edge": -0.0068,
"explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 44% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals Uta Arad 1.48 – 1.28 CFR 1907 Cluj.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nCFR 1907 Cluj's attack (1.18× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nCFR 1907 Cluj's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nRest days (Uta Arad 8, CFR 1907 Cluj 6) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).",
"fixture": 1565278,
"home": "Uta Arad",
"kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:15:00+00:00",
"league": "Liga I",
"league_api_id": 283,
"market": "1X2",
"market_probability": 0.4401,
"model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v4)",
"odds_taken": "2.12",
"prediction_version": 1,
"probability": 0.4333,
"season": 2026,
"selection": "home",
"tag": "avoid",
"tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
"trigger": "event: referee",
"type": "pick"
}Latest entries
1343 in total
#1343
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Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. cd7392517bb0… #1338 Pick published
Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. fbde87208647… #1337 Slip published
Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. f037825e1753… #1336 Slip published
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Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. a9a7f780b2ae… #1334 Pick published
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