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Entry #738: pick published

Hash verified

Malaga v Real Sociedad: Away win 43% @ 2.19 (Avoid)

Written
2026-10-18T01:02:53.311048+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash
a7361468a8317cab6ac0afb2aee4e84c864b07dba01589b368dfbf96fca64366
Stored hash
b8d5419ba4b3e08e4f4345d63d64e1e28d8e3ed7838b52fe3fe8b7c8be4c5d4a
Recomputed
b8d5419ba4b3e08e4f4345d63d64e1e28d8e3ed7838b52fe3fe8b7c8be4c5d4a
Content, exactly as hashed
{
  "away": "Real Sociedad",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.01,
  "explanation": "Away win: 43% against a market price of 44% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Malaga 1.19 – 1.33 Real Sociedad.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nMalaga's attack (0.77× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (Malaga 9, Real Sociedad 3) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nReal Sociedad's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).",
  "fixture": 1570418,
  "home": "Malaga",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4403,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.19",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4303,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee",
  "type": "pick"
}

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