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Entry #738: pick published
Hash verifiedMalaga v Real Sociedad: Away win 43% @ 2.19 (Avoid)
- Written
- 2026-10-18T01:02:53.311048+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
- Previous hash
- a7361468a8317cab6ac0afb2aee4e84c864b07dba01589b368dfbf96fca64366
- Stored hash
- b8d5419ba4b3e08e4f4345d63d64e1e28d8e3ed7838b52fe3fe8b7c8be4c5d4a
- Recomputed
- b8d5419ba4b3e08e4f4345d63d64e1e28d8e3ed7838b52fe3fe8b7c8be4c5d4a
Content, exactly as hashed
{
"away": "Real Sociedad",
"bookmakers": 6,
"edge": -0.01,
"explanation": "Away win: 43% against a market price of 44% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Malaga 1.19 – 1.33 Real Sociedad.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nMalaga's attack (0.77× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (Malaga 9, Real Sociedad 3) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nReal Sociedad's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).",
"fixture": 1570418,
"home": "Malaga",
"kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
"league": "La Liga",
"league_api_id": 140,
"market": "1X2",
"market_probability": 0.4403,
"model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
"odds_taken": "2.19",
"prediction_version": 1,
"probability": 0.4303,
"season": 2026,
"selection": "away",
"tag": "avoid",
"tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
"trigger": "event: referee",
"type": "pick"
}Latest entries
1333 in total
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Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. b1127994245e… #1331 Slip published
Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. cdd0d06816a8… #1330 Pick published
SV Meppen v Havelse: Home win 57% @ 1.63 (Avoid) 275d8b2e179c… #1329 Pick published
Sealed until kickoff: the content is published the moment the match starts. a6a09c95e2dc… #1328 Pick published
Tromso v KFUM Oslo: Home win 64% @ 1.42 (Avoid) 31a673a886b9… #1327 Pick published
Delfin SC v Manta FC: Home win 43% @ 2.14 (Avoid) a00c246bbd0e… #1326 Pick published
Valladolid v Eldense: Home win 49% @ 1.92 (Avoid) acd02b878dad… #1325 Pick published
Girona v FC Andorra: Home win 54% @ 1.76 (Avoid) 9a1cd16c136d… #1324 Pick published
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