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{
  "away": "Alaves",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0257,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 44% (+2.6%).\nExpected goals Celta Vigo 1.63 – 0.94 Alaves.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Celta Vigo 3, Alaves 8) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nCelta Vigo's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nAlaves's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.6%).",
  "fixture": 1570414,
  "home": "Celta Vigo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4363,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.21",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4619,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee",
  "type": "pick"
}