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Entry #735: pick published

Hash verified

Granada CF v Cadiz: Home win 50% @ 1.86 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:02:48.573858+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 744fa7d2e027494508c1563bda7517fdbe7ade32dc50a763e702f441d4cce964
Stored hash: 0a3b7395c9f504f442266a5accf0dc2674ba342f78f730da4a2858c49c2fe666
Recomputed: 0a3b7395c9f504f442266a5accf0dc2674ba342f78f730da4a2858c49c2fe666

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Cadiz",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0163,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Granada CF 1.39 – 0.94 Cadiz.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.4 pts to home win.\nCadiz's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nGranada CF's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nCadiz's defence (1.03× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1569976,
  "home": "Granada CF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5124,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.86",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4961,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee",
  "type": "pick"
}

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