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Entry #734: pick published

Hash verified

Valladolid v Eldense: Home win 49% @ 1.85 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:02:46.539048+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2c9aa71deca27849b99642a731ffaa6fb991831c6180860aef3b8d0b30b4f015
Stored hash: 744fa7d2e027494508c1563bda7517fdbe7ade32dc50a763e702f441d4cce964
Recomputed: 744fa7d2e027494508c1563bda7517fdbe7ade32dc50a763e702f441d4cce964

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Eldense",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0261,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 51% (-2.6%).\nExpected goals Valladolid 1.31 – 0.94 Eldense.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±4.7%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Valladolid 6, Eldense 8) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nValladolid's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nEldense's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.6%).",
  "fixture": 1569980,
  "home": "Valladolid",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5147,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.85",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4887,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: referee",
  "type": "pick"
}

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