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Entry #777: pick published

Hash verified

United Nordic v Norrby IF: Away win 38% @ 2.36 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:49.037568+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 518cd4e56c300008cda4524e1d7ab6a81d9baa018d7aff7de14be1646b3446bf
Stored hash: 1a130a0057654a13347f4ada8b6e8d6766aefef4af100182f00d23ddbc3dc055
Recomputed: 1a130a0057654a13347f4ada8b6e8d6766aefef4af100182f00d23ddbc3dc055

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Norrby IF",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0181,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 39% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals United Nordic 1.39 – 1.17 Norrby IF.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nNorrby IF's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nUnited Nordic's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1497723,
  "home": "United Nordic",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3945,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.36",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3764,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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