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Entry #776: pick published

Hash verified

Häcken W v Hammarby W: Home win 49% @ 1.89 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:47.092100+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a5cc1aed584fb055e3b433c6e26b10670b2460d15a9524c0338c1816d6846858
Stored hash: 518cd4e56c300008cda4524e1d7ab6a81d9baa018d7aff7de14be1646b3446bf
Recomputed: 518cd4e56c300008cda4524e1d7ab6a81d9baa018d7aff7de14be1646b3446bf

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hammarby W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0005,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 49% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Häcken W 1.59 – 1.15 Hammarby W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±10.2%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHammarby W's defence (0.46× the league rate against) takes 5.5 pts from home win.\nHäcken W's attack (2.20× the league rate) adds 4.2 pts to home win.\nHäcken W's defence (0.49× the league rate against) adds 3.8 pts to home win.\nHammarby W's attack (1.77× the league rate) takes 2.2 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1495581,
  "home": "Häcken W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Damallsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 549,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4893,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-549-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.89",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4898,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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