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{
  "away": "Akhmat",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0086,
  "explanation": "Home win: 70% against a market price of 71% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Zenit 2.06 – 0.83 Akhmat.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±9.9%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nZenit's attack (1.36× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nZenit's defence (0.72× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 70% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1561418,
  "home": "Zenit",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.712,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.38",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7034,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "70% likely, uncertainty only ±1.2%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}