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Entry #774: pick published

Hash verified

Beijing Guoan v Qingdao Youth Island: Home win 66% @ 1.40 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:44.024451+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 55bbf19c9cfe87c6d4e72169cd029e33de0120ec7890b33ccab7ed1a3d0d173e
Stored hash: 76a812d8cd11c316d9b56d84ed1bc2d1b83753a804d74c9897b8df91ac6c82a2
Recomputed: 76a812d8cd11c316d9b56d84ed1bc2d1b83753a804d74c9897b8df91ac6c82a2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Qingdao Youth Island",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0181,
  "explanation": "Home win: 66% against a market price of 68% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals Beijing Guoan 2.16 – 1.18 Qingdao Youth Island.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBeijing Guoan's attack (1.30× the league rate) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nQingdao Youth Island's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nBeijing Guoan's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1523281,
  "home": "Beijing Guoan",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6824,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.40",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6643,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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