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Entry #778: pick published

Hash verified

Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno: Home win 36% @ 2.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:51.287429+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1a130a0057654a13347f4ada8b6e8d6766aefef4af100182f00d23ddbc3dc055
Stored hash: 47199659462c556bfa1a4166348f6d7943be4f31a73671f21ca5316798ceb02e
Recomputed: 47199659462c556bfa1a4166348f6d7943be4f31a73671f21ca5316798ceb02e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Zbrojovka Brno",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0156,
  "explanation": "Home win: 36% against a market price of 38% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Slovácko 1.07 – 1.24 Zbrojovka Brno.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSlovácko's attack (0.84× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nSlovácko's defence (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1560048,
  "home": "Slovácko",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Czech Liga",
  "league_api_id": 345,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3797,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-345-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3641,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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