Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #779: pick published

Hash verified

Hoffenheim II v Verl: Away win 29% @ 3.50 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:53.520114+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 47199659462c556bfa1a4166348f6d7943be4f31a73671f21ca5316798ceb02e
Stored hash: 8741ed0db9d58ac84aaf0801455c06e0604486c45041c1ea64e61133124c259c
Recomputed: 8741ed0db9d58ac84aaf0801455c06e0604486c45041c1ea64e61133124c259c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Verl",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0455,
  "explanation": "Away win: 29% against a market price of 25% (+4.6%).\nExpected goals Hoffenheim II 1.41 – 1.42 Verl.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nVerl's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nHoffenheim II's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nVerl's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1584039,
  "home": "Hoffenheim II",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T11:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2486,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.50",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2942,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#778 #780

Latest entries

1501 in total