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Entry #780: pick published

Hash verified

Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF: Home win 43% @ 2.32 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:15:55.679580+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 8741ed0db9d58ac84aaf0801455c06e0604486c45041c1ea64e61133124c259c
Stored hash: 501088d4b586fc3ce453d782948ccb9c2487d7cc3617ab5de5ba496513d973d7
Recomputed: 501088d4b586fc3ce453d782948ccb9c2487d7cc3617ab5de5ba496513d973d7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Mjallby AIF",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.021,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 41% (+2.1%).\nExpected goals Vasteras SK FK 1.56 – 1.04 Mjallby AIF.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Vasteras SK FK 9, Mjallby AIF 3) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nMjallby AIF's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.1%).",
  "fixture": 1494304,
  "home": "Vasteras SK FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4052,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.32",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4262,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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