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Entry #781: pick published

Hash verified

KuPS v VPS: Home win 61% @ 1.58 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:00.349231+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 501088d4b586fc3ce453d782948ccb9c2487d7cc3617ab5de5ba496513d973d7
Stored hash: db2e064095ebbd223666d8054936e0bb4ed182189eabc3ff5ae96fae77b319e7
Recomputed: db2e064095ebbd223666d8054936e0bb4ed182189eabc3ff5ae96fae77b319e7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "VPS",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0048,
  "explanation": "Home win: 61% against a market price of 60% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals KuPS 1.92 – 0.88 VPS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 62% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nKuPS's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nKuPS's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (KuPS 3, VPS 6) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±2.2%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1638109,
  "home": "KuPS",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6022,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.58",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.607,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "61% likely, uncertainty only ±2.2%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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