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Entry #782: pick published

Hash verified

SHANGHAI SIPG v Chengdu Better City: Home win 47% @ 1.99 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:03.397527+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: db2e064095ebbd223666d8054936e0bb4ed182189eabc3ff5ae96fae77b319e7
Stored hash: 365b692b9c41add0553f93c0e877b0612acf2c81368409ac7d9953e441b81848
Recomputed: 365b692b9c41add0553f93c0e877b0612acf2c81368409ac7d9953e441b81848

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Chengdu Better City",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0065,
  "explanation": "Home win: 47% against a market price of 48% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 – 1.64 Chengdu Better City.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.30× the league rate) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nChengdu Better City's defence (0.85× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nChengdu Better City's attack (1.20× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1523282,
  "home": "SHANGHAI SIPG",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4754,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.99",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4689,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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