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Entry #783: pick published

Hash verified

Sirius v IF Elfsborg: Home win 50% @ 2.06 (Value)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:08.915529+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 365b692b9c41add0553f93c0e877b0612acf2c81368409ac7d9953e441b81848
Stored hash: ea4ab580808bc3a60632efbf1b17e8ca2188a850d08703c52a1e264f5ffb3079
Recomputed: ea4ab580808bc3a60632efbf1b17e8ca2188a850d08703c52a1e264f5ffb3079

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "IF Elfsborg",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0371,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 46% (+3.7%).\nExpected goals Sirius 2.07 – 1.25 IF Elfsborg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSirius's attack (1.31× the league rate) adds 4.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nRest days (Sirius 8, IF Elfsborg 6) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nIF Elfsborg's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Value: our 50% beats the market's 46%.",
  "fixture": 1494303,
  "home": "Sirius",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4584,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.06",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4955,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 50% beats the market's 46%",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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