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Entry #784: pick published

Hash verified

Tekstilshchik v Chelyabinsk: Away win 40% @ 2.33 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:10.180429+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ea4ab580808bc3a60632efbf1b17e8ca2188a850d08703c52a1e264f5ffb3079
Stored hash: b94029b163c03460a51c3451a1302b57ff9461cd10ead20a6412225525b22dcd
Recomputed: b94029b163c03460a51c3451a1302b57ff9461cd10ead20a6412225525b22dcd

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Chelyabinsk",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0126,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Tekstilshchik 1.04 – 1.05 Chelyabinsk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nTekstilshchik's attack (0.82× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nTekstilshchik's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nChelyabinsk's defence (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1577553,
  "home": "Tekstilshchik",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4079,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.33",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3953,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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