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Entry #787: pick published

Hash verified

Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland: Away win 50% @ 1.87 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:15.282442+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 38667e6aad323a5bd94a23639c0f2b3c35273b7b72ec0fede6b13111c0282255
Stored hash: e6e5cbcb434a567554217c79c6c23215aa14e6c280fd36a09dbaee4f56d188d1
Recomputed: e6e5cbcb434a567554217c79c6c23215aa14e6c280fd36a09dbaee4f56d188d1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Nordsjaelland",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.004,
  "explanation": "Away win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-0.4%).\nExpected goals Lyngby 1.21 – 1.76 FC Nordsjaelland.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.0%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Lyngby 7, FC Nordsjaelland 3) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nLyngby's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+15% goals at home) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nFC Nordsjaelland's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).",
  "fixture": 1549036,
  "home": "Lyngby",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superliga",
  "league_api_id": 119,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.507,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-119-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.87",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5029,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#786 #788

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