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Entry #786: pick published

Hash verified

FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov: Home win 42% @ 2.23 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:13.024975+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6b52db5b3f6b6802b0431525480cbddf96aab8062be3869bdedf7fd1db3d9931
Stored hash: 38667e6aad323a5bd94a23639c0f2b3c35273b7b72ec0fede6b13111c0282255
Recomputed: 38667e6aad323a5bd94a23639c0f2b3c35273b7b72ec0fede6b13111c0282255

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bate Borisov",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0014,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 42% (-0.1%).\nExpected goals FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.22 – 0.98 Bate Borisov.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nFC Dnepr Mogilev's defence (1.23× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nFC Dnepr Mogilev's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nRest days (FC Dnepr Mogilev 7, Bate Borisov 4) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1526002,
  "home": "FC Dnepr Mogilev",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4208,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.23",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4194,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#785 #787

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