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{
  "away": "SCR Altach",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0417,
  "explanation": "Home win: 65% against a market price of 69% (-4.2%).\nExpected goals Red Bull Salzburg 1.83 – 1.02 SCR Altach.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nRed Bull Salzburg's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nSCR Altach's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nRed Bull Salzburg's defence (0.92× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.2%).",
  "fixture": 1561944,
  "home": "Red Bull Salzburg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6942,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.38",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6525,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}