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{
  "away": "AZ Alkmaar",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0447,
  "explanation": "Away win: 61% against a market price of 66% (-4.5%).\nExpected goals Cambuur 1.27 – 1.57 AZ Alkmaar.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±8.9%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAZ Alkmaar's attack (1.17× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nCambuur's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nAZ Alkmaar's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.5%).",
  "fixture": 1552195,
  "home": "Cambuur",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.658,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.46",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6133,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}