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{
  "away": "Jagiellonia",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0106,
  "explanation": "Away win: 37% against a market price of 38% (-1.1%).\nExpected goals Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 – 1.32 Jagiellonia.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nRest days (Zaglebie Lubin 8, Jagiellonia 3) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nJagiellonia's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nZaglebie Lubin's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.1%).",
  "fixture": 1553199,
  "home": "Zaglebie Lubin",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3794,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3688,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}