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{
  "away": "Super Nova",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0093,
  "explanation": "Home win: 87% against a market price of 88% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Riga 2.76 – 0.68 Super Nova.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 80% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRiga's attack (1.79× the league rate) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nRiga's defence (0.69× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nSuper Nova's attack (0.79× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 87% likely, uncertainty only ±0.8%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1515937,
  "home": "Riga",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Virsliga",
  "league_api_id": 365,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8755,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-365-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.09",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.8662,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "87% likely, uncertainty only ±0.8%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}