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{
  "away": "FS Jelgava",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": -0.0041,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 56% (-0.4%).\nExpected goals FK Liepaja 1.72 – 0.98 FS Jelgava.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nFS Jelgava's attack (0.81× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nFS Jelgava's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nFK Liepaja's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).",
  "fixture": 1515936,
  "home": "FK Liepaja",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Virsliga",
  "league_api_id": 365,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5585,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-365-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.66",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5544,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}