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{
  "away": "Ümraniyespor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0052,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 42% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Vanspor FK 1.28 – 1.06 Ümraniyespor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nÜmraniyespor's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nÜmraniyespor's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nVanspor FK's defence (1.09× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1585798,
  "home": "Vanspor FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4242,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.18",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4191,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}