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{
  "away": "Batman Petrolspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0074,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 57% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Kayserispor 2.24 – 0.96 Batman Petrolspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 65% (uncertainty ±11.7%), so it carries 9% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKayserispor's defence (0.59× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nKayserispor's attack (1.24× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nBatman Petrolspor's defence (1.19× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1585795,
  "home": "Kayserispor",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5658,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.66",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5732,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}