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Entry #800: pick published

Hash verified

Dinamo Tbilisi v Spaeri: Home win 54% @ 1.63 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:39.645508+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 204b53d334b957c8eb3e864c77e37a6026875bc18dbdbdc194c7ffa1d074c664
Stored hash: 3fed7cfd3806ea2494419ab62d64d3a1c092e153c017decace067de4c8d215ef
Recomputed: 3fed7cfd3806ea2494419ab62d64d3a1c092e153c017decace067de4c8d215ef

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Spaeri",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0271,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 57% (-2.7%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Tbilisi 1.63 – 1.14 Spaeri.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nSpaeri's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nDinamo Tbilisi's defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nDinamo Tbilisi's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).",
  "fixture": 1509199,
  "home": "Dinamo Tbilisi",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Erovnuli Liga",
  "league_api_id": 327,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5688,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-327-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.63",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5417,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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