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Entry #801: pick published

Hash verified

GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo: Home win 25% @ 4.29 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:41.560260+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3fed7cfd3806ea2494419ab62d64d3a1c092e153c017decace067de4c8d215ef
Stored hash: 8781fa7e38c419a10862f94b2473c2fb06d9e62b50ead9b3cb7f62a1bf8b9d66
Recomputed: 8781fa7e38c419a10862f94b2473c2fb06d9e62b50ead9b3cb7f62a1bf8b9d66

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "IFK Varnamo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0441,
  "explanation": "Home win: 25% against a market price of 21% (+4.4%).\nExpected goals GIF Sundsvall 1.62 – 1.62 IFK Varnamo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGIF Sundsvall's attack (0.82× the league rate) takes 2.2 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nGIF Sundsvall's defence (1.13× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nIFK Varnamo's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1497727,
  "home": "GIF Sundsvall",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2066,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "4.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2508,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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