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Entry #802: pick published

Hash verified

Albion FC v Atletico Torque: Away win 45% @ 2.08 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:43.705398+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 8781fa7e38c419a10862f94b2473c2fb06d9e62b50ead9b3cb7f62a1bf8b9d66
Stored hash: c310ddba919092dc600f2646c2f566f785448cdba1251851a718623687c6e003
Recomputed: c310ddba919092dc600f2646c2f566f785448cdba1251851a718623687c6e003

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Atletico Torque",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.004,
  "explanation": "Away win: 45% against a market price of 45% (+0.4%).\nExpected goals Albion FC 1.26 – 1.64 Atletico Torque.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Albion FC 7, Atletico Torque 4) adds 2.7 pts to away win.\nAtletico Torque's attack (1.18× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nAlbion FC's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.4%).",
  "fixture": 1644702,
  "home": "Albion FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.448,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.452,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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