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Entry #803: pick published

Hash verified

HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin: Home win 52% @ 1.80 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:45.550994+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c310ddba919092dc600f2646c2f566f785448cdba1251851a718623687c6e003
Stored hash: 577e0233cdeafb941d1edcb80dfafebecbc511061e09054d7bfb593ae86fcbaf
Recomputed: 577e0233cdeafb941d1edcb80dfafebecbc511061e09054d7bfb593ae86fcbaf

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "NK Varazdin",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0072,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 52% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals HNK Hajduk Split 1.55 – 1.01 NK Varazdin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.0%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nNK Varazdin's defence (0.80× the league rate against) takes 1.8 pts from home win.\nHNK Hajduk Split's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nHNK Hajduk Split's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1548542,
  "home": "HNK Hajduk Split",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5243,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.80",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.517,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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