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Entry #804: pick published

Hash verified

Dynamo v CSKA Moscow: Home win 42% @ 2.33 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:47.059624+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 577e0233cdeafb941d1edcb80dfafebecbc511061e09054d7bfb593ae86fcbaf
Stored hash: 1a39ba5075ce3582adf0ba69f3fd63759dad92f5146b3d432f1fc1cea197c635
Recomputed: 1a39ba5075ce3582adf0ba69f3fd63759dad92f5146b3d432f1fc1cea197c635

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CSKA Moscow",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0063,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 42% (+0.6%).\nExpected goals Dynamo 1.65 – 1.29 CSKA Moscow.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDynamo's attack (1.28× the league rate) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nCSKA Moscow's defence (0.84× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nCSKA Moscow's attack (1.15× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.6%).",
  "fixture": 1561413,
  "home": "Dynamo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4181,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.33",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4244,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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